It is time to announce the results from Stochastic Elections Canada for the 43rd General Election.
Every vote counts with the stochastic election process, so we had to wait until all election results were validated before we could announce our results. However, stochastic election results are not very sensitive to small changes to the number of votes counted. The distributions for each candidate are typically only slightly adjusted.
Now we can announce our MP selection.
| Party | Seats | Seat Percentage | Vote Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 116 | 34.3% | 33.1% |
| Conservative | 102 | 30.2% | 34.4% |
| NDP-New Democratic Party | 61 | 18.0% | 15.9% |
| Bloc Québécois | 25 | 7.40% | 7.69% |
| Green Party | 23 | 6.80% | 6.50% |
| People’s Party | 6 | 1.78% | 1.64% |
| Christian Heritage Party | 1 | 0.296% | 0.105% |
| Parti Rhinocéros | 1 | 0.296% | 0.0535% |
| Independent | 3 | 0.888% |
Results by province and by riding are available (electoral districts on page 2).
The results were generated from Elections Canada data. One hundred and eighty-one elected candidates differ from the actual 2019 election outcome.
The People’s Party holds the balance of power in this parliament. Assuming a Liberal party member becomes speaker of the house, that means the Liberals together with the Bloc Québécois and Green Party have 163 votes and the Conservative and NDP together have 163 votes. The People’s Party’s 6 votes that is enough to decide which side reaches 169.
The rise in the Green Party’s popular vote allowed them to gain more seats this election. The Green Party has close to the same number of seats as the Bloc Québécois which reflects the fact that they have close to the same popular vote, even though the Green Party’s votes are more dilluted throughout Canada. This illustrates how sortition is a form of proportional electoral system.
Many proportional election systems require candidates to run under a party, or at least it is advantageous to be a run under a party. One notable advantage of sortition is that independent or unaffiliated candidates are not disadvantaged. While we did not select Jody Wilson-Raybould for her riding, Jane Philpott was elected to Markham—Stouffville. Also Archie MacKinnon was elected to Sydney—Victoria. And, with sortition, even the 396 residents of Miramichi—Grand Lake get a turn to have their choice of Mathew Grant Lawson to represent them in parliament.
This is only one example of the results of a stochastic election. Because of the stochastic nature of the election process, actual results may differ.
In Canada’s election process, it is sometimes advantageous to not vote for one’s preferred candidate. The stochastic election system is the only system in which it always best to vote for your preferred candidate. Therefore, if the 2019 election were actually using a stochastic election system, people would be allowed to vote for their true preferences. The outcome could be somewhat different than what this simulation illustrates.
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