Stochastic Elections Canada 2006 Results


While the last election in Canada may be a fading memory for some of you, rest assured that we at Stochastic Elections Canada have been hard at work. Because in our system every vote counts, we must wait until all election results are validated and certified before we can announce our results. Now that the last elected MP has been announced in Canada Gazette we can announce our MP selection.

The selection process has been on going as the results for each electoral district were finalized. We sent our results to the Canada Gazette but for some reason they don’t recognise the chief stochastic electoral officer of Canada. Rather that boring all of you with the results as they were generated between Jan. 31 and Feb. 15, I have decided to announce them once all together now. Without further ado, the results of the 2006 stochastic election simulation.

2006 Stochastic Election Simulation Results
Party Seats Seat Percentage Vote Percentage
Conservative 115 37.3377% 36.2692%
Liberal 86 27.9221% 30.2313%
N.D.P. 53 17.2078% 17.4770%
Bloc Québécois 32 10.3896% 10.4824%
Green Party 19 6.1688% 4.4817%
Christian Heritage Party 2 0.6494% 0.1900%
Independent 1 0.3247%

Results by province and by riding are available.

The results were generated from Elections Canada data. One hundred and fifty-four elected candidates differ from the actual 2006 election outcome. Although the Christian Heritage Party has two seats, it is the Green Party that holds the balance of power in this parliament.

This is only one example of the results of a stochastic election. Because of the stochastic nature of the election process, actual results may differ.

In Canada’s election process, it is sometimes advantageous to not vote for one’s preferred candidate. The stochastic election system is the only system in which it always best to vote for your preferred candidate. Therefore if the 2006 election were actually using a stochastic election system, people would be allowed to vote for their true preferences. The outcome could be somewhat different than what this simulation illustrates.

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