Stochastic Elections Canada 2006 Update


By now you have a pretty good idea what Elections Canada says parliament is going to be, but you are probably all eagerly waiting to see what the fair parliament returned by Stochastic Elections Canada will be.

Unfortunately, Stochastic Election law requires that all counts be validated and recounted, if requested, before seat selection takes place. Fortunately recounts are less of an issue for Stochastic Elections Canada. In Elections Canada’s silly electoral system a mere 212928 votes can change the balance of power in a parliament. However, for us, 212928 votes never changes the distribution very much. None the less, we must await the return of the writs, scheduled by electoral law for Monday February 13.

For now, we have teamed up with StatCan to bring you our seat expectation chart based on preliminary election results:

Expected Seat Distribution
Party Expected Number of Seats
AACEV Party of Canada 0
Bloc Québécois 22 – 43
Canadian Action 0 – 1
Christian Heritage Party 0 – 2
Communist 0 – 1
Conservative 95 – 128
Green Party 7 – 21
Liberal 78 – 109
Libertarian 0 – 1
Marijuana Party 0 – 1
Marxist-Leninist 0 – 1
N.D.P. 41 – 67
PC Party 0 – 1
Independent 0 – 4
No Affiliation 0 – 1

At first I tried to compute the exact 95% confidence intervals using all the election data by riding. But after staring the computation I realised it was going to process 2308 cells of data per party. That isn’t really a feasible computation, so instead I was forced to assume the National average results were the same for all ridings. I believe this has the effect of making the above intervals a little wider than they ought to be.



Russell O’Connor: contact me