Stochastic Elections Canada 2008 Results


Election fever is in the air, and you know what that means. That’s right. After some hard work, it is time to announce the results from Stochastic Elections Canada for the 40th General Election.

Every vote counts with the stochastic election process, so we had to wait until all election results were validated and certified before we could announce our results. With the traditional methods, a seat can flip from a 102 vote lead for Bloc Québécois to a 69 vote lead for the Liberals. However, stochastic election results are not very sensitive to small changes to the number of votes counted. The distributions for each candidate are typically only slightly adjusted.

Now that the last judicial recount has been completed, we can announce our MP selection.

2008 Stochastic Election Simulation Results
Party Seats Seat Percentage Vote Percentage
Conservative 102 33.1% 37.7%
Liberal 88 28.6% 26.3%
NDP-New Democratic Party 62 20.1% 18.2%
Bloc Québécois 28 9.09% 9.98%
Green Party 23 7.47% 6.78%
Christian Heritage Party 1 0.325% 0.191%
Libertarian 1 0.325% 0.0527%
Communist 1 0.325% 0.0258%
Independent 2 0.649%

Results by province and by riding are available (electoral districts on page 2).

The results were generated from Elections Canada data. One hundred and fifty-six elected candidates differ from the actual 2008 election outcome. It is a hot parliament. The Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party have 153 votes together. The Liberals and the NDP have 150 votes. This means that any of the other parties and independents could decide whether motions pass or fail.

This is only one example of the results of a stochastic election. Because of the stochastic nature of the election process, actual results may differ.

In Canada’s election process, it is sometimes advantageous to not vote for one’s preferred candidate. The stochastic election system is the only system in which it always best to vote for your preferred candidate. Therefore if the 2008 election were actually using a stochastic election system, people would be allowed to vote for their true preferences. The outcome could be somewhat different than what this simulation illustrates.

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