By now you have a pretty good idea what Elections Canada says parliament is going to be, but you are probably all eagerly waiting to see what the fair parliament returned by Stochastic Elections Canada will be.
Unfortunately, Stochastic Election law requires that all counts be validated and recounted, if requested, before seat selection takes place. Because in our voting system every vote influences the outcome, we must await the return of the writs, scheduled by electoral law for Tuesday November 4. The stocastic voting system is the only voting system that gives proportional representation, local representatives, and where stratigic voting is never advantageous.
For now, we have teamed up with StatCan to bring you our seat expectation chart based on preliminary election results:
| Party | Expected Number of Seats | Distribution Shape |
|---|---|---|
| AAEV Party of Canada | 0 |  |
| Bloc Québécois | 20 – 36 |  |
| CAP | 0 – 1 |  |
| Christian Heritage Party | 0 – 2 |  |
| Communist | 0 – 1 |  |
| Conservative | 100 – 131 |  |
| FPNP | 0 – 1 |  |
| Green Party | 12 – 29 |  |
| Liberal | 68 – 96 |  |
| Libertarian | 0 – 1 |  |
| Marxist-Leninist | 0 – 1 |  |
| NDP-New Democratic Party | 46 – 71 |  |
| neorhino.ca | 0 – 1 |  |
| NL First Party | 0 – 1 |  |
| PC Party | 0 – 1 |  |
| PPP | 0 |  |
| Radical Marijuana | 0 – 1 |  |
| WBP | 0 |  |
| Work Less Party | 0 |  |
| Independent | 0 – 4 |  |
| No Affiliation | 0 – 1 |  |
This time I have figured out how to compute the exact distribution for the number of seats a party will get. What is interesting is that, because of laziness, my naïve Haskell implementation can compute the 95% confidence intervals above without completing the computation of the distribution. I have no idea how I would do that in a traditional programming language. Of course, I still need to complete the computation of the distribution to generate the shapes of the distributions above.
Related info