Stochastic Elections Canada 2008 Update


By now you have a pretty good idea what Elections Canada says parliament is going to be, but you are probably all eagerly waiting to see what the fair parliament returned by Stochastic Elections Canada will be.

Unfortunately, Stochastic Election law requires that all counts be validated and recounted, if requested, before seat selection takes place. Because in our voting system every vote influences the outcome, we must await the return of the writs, scheduled by electoral law for Tuesday November 4. The stocastic voting system is the only voting system that gives proportional representation, local representatives, and where stratigic voting is never advantageous.

For now, we have teamed up with StatCan to bring you our seat expectation chart based on preliminary election results:

Expected Seat Distribution
Party Expected Number of Seats Distribution Shape
AAEV Party of Canada 0
Bloc Québécois 20 – 36
CAP 0 – 1
Christian Heritage Party 0 – 2
Communist 0 – 1
Conservative 100 – 131
FPNP 0 – 1
Green Party 12 – 29
Liberal 68 – 96
Libertarian 0 – 1
Marxist-Leninist 0 – 1
NDP-New Democratic Party 46 – 71 0 – 1
NL First Party 0 – 1
PC Party 0 – 1
Radical Marijuana 0 – 1
Work Less Party 0
Independent 0 – 4
No Affiliation 0 – 1

This time I have figured out how to compute the exact distribution for the number of seats a party will get. What is interesting is that, because of laziness, my naïve Haskell implementation can compute the 95% confidence intervals above without completing the computation of the distribution. I have no idea how I would do that in a traditional programming language. Of course, I still need to complete the computation of the distribution to generate the shapes of the distributions above.

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Russell O’Connor: contact me