Stochastic Elections Canada 2015 Results


It is time to announce the results from Stochastic Elections Canada for the 42nd General Election.

Every vote counts with the stochastic election process, so we had to wait until all election results were validated and certified before we could announce our results. However, stochastic election results are not very sensitive to small changes to the number of votes counted. The distributions for each candidate are typically only slightly adjusted.

Now that the last judicial recount has been completed, we can announce our MP selection.

2015 Stochastic Election Simulation Results
Party Seats Seat Percentage Vote Percentage
Liberal 139 41.1% 39.5%
Conservative 105 31.1% 31.9%
NDP-New Democratic Party 63 18.6% 19.7%
Bloc Québécois 19 5.62% 4.66%
Green Party 11 3.25% 3.45%
Christian Heritage Party 1 0.296% 0.0870%

Results by province and by riding are available (electoral districts on page 2).

The results were generated from Elections Canada data. One hundred and seventy-four elected candidates differ from the actual 2015 election outcome.

The Christian Heritage Party holds the balance of power in this parliament. Assuming a Liberal party member becomes speaker of the house, that means the Liberals together with the Bloc Québécois and Green Party have 168 votes and the Conservative and NDP together have 168 votes. In this case, it is the Christian Heritage Party vote that would break the tie.

Unfortunately, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau with 52.0% of the vote in the riding of Papineau, still lost to Maxime Claveau of the Bloc Québécois with 12.2% of the vote. Apparently it is now the Bloc Québécois’s turn to represent their support in Papineau. If Justin Trudeau wants to be prime minister, his best bet is to try to be appointed to the Senate and rule from there. Similarly NDP leader Tom Mulcair lost to Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan in the riding of Outremont. Perhaps there is a deal to be struck between the Liberal and NDP to get their leaders appointed to the Senate.

This is only one example of the results of a stochastic election. Because of the stochastic nature of the election process, actual results may differ.

In Canada’s election process, it is sometimes advantageous to not vote for one’s preferred candidate. The stochastic election system is the only system in which it always best to vote for your preferred candidate. Therefore, if the 2015 election were actually using a stochastic election system, people would be allowed to vote for their true preferences. The outcome could be somewhat different than what this simulation illustrates.

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