I took a bit of a risk and bought 20 FX-bucks worth of Sweden says yes to Euro at 20%. So if it had passed I would have been up 80 FX-bucks. But Exit polls show that Yes only got 46.2% of the vote. I managed to sell my 100 claims for 1 FX-buck at 19:00Z so I’m only down 19 FX-bucks. I guess I’ll be upset if those exit polls are wrong. But I have faith that exit polls have > 99% chance of being right.
It’s a bit disheartening to have almost made 1% profit over one and a half months of playing, and now I’m down 4%. But I’ll try to push those irrational emotions away, and stick by my plan to make riskier bets. Currently working at buying Gray Davis won’t be recalled at 25%.
Perhaps if I hadn’t been playing amplitude had been paying attention when the exit polls were annonced, I could have canceled my order.